A tropical depression currently moving west-northwest over Central Cuba is expected to become a tropical storm as it crosses the Florida Keys Saturday night, then shear into the area of Tampa Bay and cross the state toward Jacksonville, bringing heavy rain and potential tropical storm conditions to Flagler County between Sunday and Monday, according to the latest forecast of the National Hurricane Center.
Rain amounts could reach between 4 to 6 inches in north-central Florida counties. The storm is currently identified as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four (and has also been referred to as Invest 97L), with an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.
“I’m going to guess by the end of the day Saturday, maybe early Sunday, it’ll be Tropical Storm Debby,” Flagler County Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord said after the Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. update today. The storm’s winds have to reach 40 miles per hour to be categorized as a tropical storm.
It will make landfall anywhere from the Big bend area of the state to Naples, Lord said, “and then kind of heading towards Jacksonville, like Nassau County, but again, it could be as far south as below Daytona Beach or not even coming this way, it stays west toward Valdosta instead. So it can be a whole lot of nothing for us potentially other than some heavy rain.” But Flagler County is well inside the probability cone, giving it at least the potential of tropical storm impacts. “That is a distinct possibility. Now, most likely, we would see those at the coastline or other large open areas, but not necessarily the whole county.”
What is more certain for Flagler is rain spread out over the weekend and through Monday, with the bulk of it the second half of Sunday and Monday.
Friday afternoon the weather system was moving at 16 miles per hour over Cuba, with a projected path forming an arc on the east side of the Gulf of Mexico as it reaches the west coast of Florida Saturday night. A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected in the Tampa Bay area and in Charlotte Harbor.
“My rhyming line I can say in a scenario like this is: be prepared but not scared,” Lord said. “We want people to be aware of what the possibilities are of the weather. We want people to make sure that their disaster supply kits are stocked. We have time today, tonight, you have time tomorrow to go to the store and get whatever things you didn’t already have in your kit.” No evacuations are expected. Meanwhile, the county is prepared. “If we need to pull the trigger, we have staff on call for the for the whole weekend if we need to pull them in. We have sheltering options should be need to pull that trigger and make that happen.”
On Thursday, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 54 of Florida’s 67 counties, most along the Gulf Coast and in northern Florida, including Flagler. DeSantis’ order also directed Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie–Lord’s predecessor in Flagler–to coordinate the state’s approach to the storm and any recovery operations.
