The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two weather systems for potential tropical development over the next seven days, including one near the southeast Atlantic coast. This system now has a 40 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation on Friday or Saturday, up from 30 percent.
Regardless of how this system evolves, the National Weather Service in Jacksonville said this morning, an influx of tropical moisture and coastal convergence could increase flood risk for coastal areas Friday into Saturday. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) of flooding rainfall for coastal locations.
Another system, currently in the eastern, tropical Atlantic, has a 50 percent chance of tropical storm formation in seven days. The American forecasting model shows that weather system remaining disorganized as it crosses the Atlantic toward the Lower Antilles by Monday, then developing further into a more organized storm as it swerves north by midweek next week, and heads for the North Carolina shore. See the storm’s forecast from today through Aug. 21 in the animation below.
This week, onshore winds and building easterly swells will maintain at least a moderate rip current risk for local beaches, potentially increasing to high risk for some locations by the weekend with rough surf. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service is forecasting a strong potential for strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along the I-95 corridor, from Coastal Georgia down to Palm Coast and Flagler County, with possible wind gusts of up to 50 mph, heavy downpours, localized flooding and frequent lightning. The timing for the likeliest storms would be between 2 and 8 p.m. See the Jacksonville-NWS’s daily weather briefing here.
Temperatures will be near normal this week but will again be above normal next week. NWS recommends using the next few days to monitor official weather forecasts, review home and business emergency plans, and refresh emergency supplies, if necessary.
The hurricane center had predicted a 60 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, with a range of 13 to 19 named storms of winds of 39 mph or higher–whether tropical storms of hurricanes. There have been four named storms so far, with Tropical Storm Dexter currently swirling south of Nova Scotia, and heading northeast, away from the North American land mass.
The forecast through Aug. 21 (Tropical Tidbits):
The European Model:
