Closing the tabs …
Netanyahu announces a ceasefire in Lebanon. He makes it clear that any effort by Hezbollah to attack or even rearm would be a breach.
The ceasefire is meant to enforce resolution 1701, which the international community committed to almost 2 decades ago.pic.twitter.com/VXAr3KIW2t
— AG (@AGHamilton29) November 26, 2024
Ed: The parameters of the deal are pretty much what I expected. It takes effect at 4 am ET.
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The Israel Defense Forces continued its intense airstrike and ground campaigns in Gaza and in Lebanon, with Israeli attacks on targets nationwide including in the capital Beirut.
The strikes continue despite a cease-fire push fronted by President Joe Biden’s White House as it prepares to hand power to President-elect Donald Trump.
Ed: Did I mention the cease-fire starts at 4 am ET?
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Ed: This isn’t a bad statement, although it’s not entirely accurate. Biden has been demanding military concessions from Israel since both wars started. The “people of Gaza have been through hell,” but they supported the October 7 attack and still hold hostages, including Americans, which is one of the few times that Biden has acknowledged that recently. Talking about a Palestinian state is absurd at the moment, though.
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Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomes the US-brokered ceasefire proposal between Israel and Hezbollah, describing it as a crucial step toward stability, the return of displaced people to their homes and regional calm. …
The prime minister reaffirms Lebanon’s commitment to implementing UN resolution 1701, strengthening the Lebanese army’s presence in the south, and cooperating with the UN peacekeeping force. He also calls on Israel to fully comply with the ceasefire and withdraw from southern Lebanon in accordance with the UN resolution.
Ed: Well, you first, pal. Israel has agreed to withdraw but only if the Lebanese army fills the gap and keeps Hezbollah out of the sub-Litani region. Israel has seen this movie before, and it keeps generating sequels.
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Even after Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire in Lebanon, military experts still believe that there is “very little hope” of a ceasefire in Gaza, and Israeli forces will likely remain there “for the foreseeable future,” CBS News’ @Debora_Patta reports.
“The situation there… pic.twitter.com/uE3OgahW2g
— CBS News (@CBSNews) November 26, 2024
Ed: The point of this cessation is to cut Hamas off from Hezbollah and Iran. Netanyahu wants Hamas entirely destroyed down to the last man. The only way this war ends is in capitulation, not in a cease-fire.
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Iran is also weighing its own Rubicon, the river in northern Italy, which Caesar reached before he marched on Rome 2,000 years ago. Iran may now move towards nuclear armament. It may also seek to push its proxies in Iraq and Syria to strike at Israel or increase threats to the Golan.
If there is a 60-day period for the ceasefire, Iran will have much to do because the 60 days coincides roughly with the lead-up to US President-elect Donald Trump taking office. The next weeks will be important to see which way Iran heads. Does it focus internally on nuclear weapons, or does it seek to push its proxies to escalate attacks on Israel?
Ed: Iran crossed the Rubicon in April with its first direct attack on Israel, followed by the larger one in October. Israel refrained from attacking their declared nuclear infrastructure in their responses to both attacks, although the IDF did destroy an unacknowledged nuclear development site in Parchin last month. But Israel only refrained under pressure from Biden, and Trump will likely let Israel off the leash if Iran attacks again or actually begins producing a nuclear weapon.
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Israeli forces will not immediately withdraw from Lebanon when ceasefire deal goes into effect, a US senior official said, but must do so within 60 days. Official says they will withdraw as Lebanese forces reach the south to “prevent any vacuums from being formed”
— Jennifer Hansler (@jmhansler) November 26, 2024
Ed: As I wrote this morning, a couple of things change in 60 days. We’ll see how that impacts the cessation by the deadline.
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‘It’s a ceasefire under pressure, which is very different to a one where all parties agree the war needs to end.’
Middle East affairs analyst Jasmine El-Gamal tells @BenKentish she needs to ‘inject a bit of realism’ into the nature of the 60-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. pic.twitter.com/E1ifHNmw0f
— LBC (@LBC) November 26, 2024
Ed: El-Gamal reads this pretty well. This is a cessation more than a cease-fire; it would eventually turn into a cease-fire, but only if Hezbollah really does disarm and evacuate the sub-Litani region. Iran needs them as a deterrent against Israeli attack, but … that didn’t actually work this time, and probably won’t ever get back to the same level of threat in the future.
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Ahmad Yassine, a Lebanese Shiite commentator with a large following on the social media platform X, wrote last Thursday that Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem, signaled the group’s capitulation as a military force in his latest address last week.
“It was clear to anyone who heard the pre-recorded speech that it was a declaration of complete surrender,” Yassine wrote. “Hezbollah has fallen, all it has to do now is announce the date of the funeral,” he wrote.
