In the aftermath of the debate on Tuesday, the media promptly declared Kamala Harris the winner. Perhaps stylistically, she had an edge, but when it came to resonating with undecided and independent voters, multiple focus groups showed that Trump was the candidate who managed to succeed on that front.
A new Insider Poll out of Michigan reinforces Trump’s momentum, showing him ahead 49 percent to Harris’s 48 percent.
📊 MICHIGAN GE: @InsiderPolling
🟥 Trump: 49%
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟪 Other: 1%#86 (2.0/3.0) | 800 LV | 9/11-12 | ±3.7% pic.twitter.com/UfrnJ0clIP
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 12, 2024
This is significant because Michigan and Wisconsin are considered some of Kamala Harris’s strongest chances among the swing states, yet the race remains razor thin. Pennsylvania is widely considered the tipping-point state that will determine the outcome. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris would have to sweep the Sun Belt battleground states and the remaining Great Lakes states to win the election—and that’s going to be extremely difficult for her to pull off.
Donald Trump, however, doesn’t need Michigan to win. Yet, the strength of his support there is pretty significant, according to Major Garrett of CBS News.
“I talked to 20 voters. Not one of them was undecided. Not one,” he said.
“And, headlines come and go. Support for President Trump is real and resilient. I encountered that everywhere I went, and that’s something the Harris campaign knows, recognizes the fact in Michigan.”
“It’s a fact in Michigan. Top Democrats in Michigan tell me that they expect the margin in this election could be as tight as 50,000 votes. Biden won Michigan by 150,000 votes. So let’s dig a little deeper. I was in Dearborn, just outside of Detroit, population about a 110,000, roughly a third of that is Arab American. That’s 30,000 votes, possibly.”
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“And the Gaza war is of significant importance to that community,” he continued. “Many people I talked to said they have friends, relatives who are suffering. They think about it every single day.”
Major Garrett: “I talked to 20 voters. Not one of them was undecided… Support for President Trump is real and resilient. I encountered that everywhere I went.” pic.twitter.com/0dFVgNNstd
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 11, 2024
She voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 — but is voting for President Trump now pic.twitter.com/xK3cvZlxqf
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 11, 2024
For a little context here, I should point out that in 2020, the RealClearPolitics average for Michigan had Biden up 4.2 points, and he actually won by 2.8 points. So, if Trump is polling under his actual support again, and if the polls in Michigan are tight, that likely bodes well for Donald Trump there. Personally, I can’t see Trump winning Pennsylvania and Michigan without also winning Wisconsin, which would leave no realistic path to victory for Kamala.
That’s why Kamala should be nervous about the InsiderAdvantage poll. They were really close to the actual outcome in 2020.
