The back-to-back assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in the Middle East have pushed the region to its most dangerous point yet.
That is the view of international relations expert Jessica Genauer, of Flinders University in Adelaide, who told 9news.com.au there was little chance of de-escalation as Iran looks set to strike back at Israel.
“The situation is extremely volatile, with a real risk that retaliatory actions could escalate into a direct conflict between Israel and Lebanon,” she said.
Past conflicts between Israel and Lebanon in 1996 and 2006, which involved Israeli military ground operations against Hezbollah fighters, led to high civilian casualties and ended in military and political stalemates.
Hezbollah has since grown to be a potent force in the Middle East, with estimates of having up to 150,000 well-trained fighters and an arsenal of sophisticated weaponry, including modern missiles.
A new invasion by the Israeli Defence Force risks opening a second front in the Gaza war and overstretching its capabilities. Such a move also brings direct confrontation with Iran much closer.
For past days, Israel’s key ally the United States has been braced for expected Iranian retaliation for the killing of a top Hamas leader in Tehran last week.
His death came only hours after Israel said it had killed Hezbollah’s most senior military official, Fu’ad Shukr, in a drone strike in Beirut, Lebanon.
The killings have now propelled the Middle East toward the edge of a menacing precipice.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned there are “challenging days ahead”, while Hamas and Iran’s supreme pledged to strike back against Israel.
Despite intense diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions, there seems to be no realistic chance of a de-escalation.
“It is not in the interests of either the US or Iran to see a wider escalation in the region,” said Genauer.
“The fact that Israel carried out a direct strike on Beirut suggests that US ability to restrain Netanyahu’s actions is limited.
“Whilst Iran might have influence to check Hezbollah, the extent to which they have a will to do so – is unclear.”
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