Trump holds 4-point lead over Biden ahead of first debate — his biggest jump yet, new poll reveals

Former President Donald Trump has opened up a four-point lead over President Biden ahead of his Thursday debate with his 2024 opponent, a new poll shows. 

Trump, 78, received 48% support among likely voters in comparison to Biden’s 44% backing, a New York Times/Siena College poll released Wednesday found. 

The results represent Trump’s biggest lead in the national poll this election cycle. 

The pollsters’ previous survey, released in April, showed Trump with only a one-point edge over Biden, 81, with likely voters. 


Donald Trump
A majority of voters believe Trump will perform well during Thursday’s debate. Getty Images

Among registered voters, the former president held a six-point advantage over the incumbent, 48%-42%, the survey showed. 

Trump was also ahead of Biden when third-party candidates were included in the poll, receiving 40% support to the president’s 37% backing. 

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 70, garnered 7% support among likely voters.

The outlet noted that the results of the poll could be an outlier given that its average of national polls through Wednesday indicated that Trump was ahead in the horserace by only one point, 46%-45%. 

The poll showed that Biden’s age continues to be an issue with voters, with 70% viewing the president as too old to be effective, including a majority of his supporters. 

Meanwhile, only 40% felt the same about Trump. 


Joe Biden
A whopping 70% of voters believe Biden is too old to be president. Getty Images

Voters named the economy (23%) and immigration (17%) as the two top issues heading into the election, and 50% said Trump would better handle their leading concerns. Only 40% responded that Biden was better suited to address their top issue.  

The two candidates will square off Thursday in their first of two scheduled debates before the November contest. 

Seventy-seven percent of likely voters answered that they intend to watch the showdown, with 59% expecting Trump to perform well and less than half (48%) thinking Biden would do the same. 

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