Australia could face a potential return of a La Niña weather event in the Pacific later this year.
The Pacific Ocean has been in an El Niño state for the past six to eight months, meaning it had warmer than average water at its central and eastern surface.
An El Niño is typically characterised by drier, hotter weather in Australia’s eastern states.
This most recent El Niño followed three successive La Niña events, which brought widespread rain and cooler temperatures.
But the pendulum could potentially swing back already, with the current El Niño hitting its peak during summer and now weakening.
Weatherzone reported that while forecasts did not agree over whether the Pacific Ocean would remain “neutral” through winter, or transition to a La Niña, a new sign potentially pointed to the latter.
“While most of the tropical Pacific is currently much warmer than usual for this time of year, some cooler than average water has emerged in the eastern tropical Pacific over the past few days,” Weatherzone wrote.
“The maps below show that this ‘cool blob’ was had not yet emerged on February 25 but was clearly visible by March 2.”
Some forecast models predict this “cool blob” will continue to spread in coming months, which could trigger a “rapid” transition to La Niña this year.
Bushfires burning in Victoria’s west turn sky glowing red
“However, it is too early to know with much certainty whether this will happen or not,” Weatherzone wrote.
Long-term forecasts are less reliable before winter, meaning any current outlook should be treated with caution.
