Republicans are odds-on favorites to take over the Senate in November. The GOP only needs to pick up two seats — or one if Donald Trump wins the presidency.
There are several races in red and purple states that are ripe for the picking and the GOP has already recruited several excellent candidates. And the top two states the GOP has its eyes on are West Virginia and Montana. Both states were won handily by Trump in 2020 and are the best shots for the Republicans to win and take over the Senate no matter who wins the presidency.
The West Virginia Senate seat currently held by the retiring Joe Manchin is a near-lock for Republicans. Donald Trump carried the state by 37 points in 2020, and there are two excellent candidates running in the primary. Governor Jim Justice is currently far ahead of Rep. Alex Mooney, and has captured the endorsement of Trump.
Justice has to live down a carpetbagger label, having switched parties in 2017. But he’s one of the most popular governors in West Virginia history.
The only Democrat dumb enough to challenge Justice is socialist Zach Shrewsbury, a Marine Corps vet and self-proclaimed working class hero. Chalk up one sure win for the GOP.
Montana will be key. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester has managed to be twice elected in very red Montana. Tester wins his races by taking care of the home folks — farmers and ranchers — while in Washington and relying on a first-class constituent services operation. In a small-population state like Montana, solving constituent problems with DC is key.
The fly in the GOP ointment in Montana is Rep. Matt Rosendale, who ran against Tester in 2018. The Republican lost to Tester by 3 percentage points and has been making noises about challenging Tester in 2024.
Rosendale’s candidacy would complicate the candidacy of businessman Tim Sheehy, handpicked by Senator Steve Daines who happens to chair the GOP Senatorial Campaign Committee.
“I hope he stays in the House and continues to develop seniority there,” said Daines.
Sheehy has overcome a double-digit lead by Rosendale after a massive, multi-million dollar ad buy. He now leads comfortably 40-24.
“Steve Daines has made it exceedingly clear that the Senate committee is supporting Tim Sheehy,” Rosendale told Politico in an interview. “People across Montana still overwhelmingly would rather have someone who is an independent voice for them and not answering to Mitch McConnell.”
Rosendale has until March 11 to get into the race.
