In the awards watch this week, let’s focus on the NL Cy Young, which, in my roundabout way of viewing the world, takes us right to the standings.
Only one team (Atlanta) that won a division title last year was in first place. Only five of the 12 playoff clubs from last season were in postseason position.
There also were six 2023 playoff teams at .500 or worse: The 13-13 Dodgers and Phillies, the 13-14 Padres, the 12-13 Guardians and the 11-14 Mariners, whose playoff chances were further harmed this week when they lost Robbie Ray (elbow) for the season.
The other under-.500 2022 playoff team was the 10-16 Cardinals, the only one of the group in last place. It is St. Louis’ worst start since the 1973 club — which had a first baseman named Joe Torre — began the season 5-19. That club rallied to finish 81-81.
No one should be surprised if the Cardinals, who have made the playoffs in five straight seasons, rally this year. The NL Central is no one’s idea of a powerhouse compared to, say, the AL East, in which every team was .500 or better. The Pirates were in first, but if they wound up last and the Cardinals first, would anyone be shocked?
But it is hard to ignore how bad the Cardinals have played to date. The defense has been uncharacteristically unsettled, Nolan Arenado hasn’t hit and the questions keep rising about the sagacity of a seismic shift away from two decades of having a defense-first philosophy at catcher with Yadier Molina to the bat-first Willson Contreras.
The Cardinals expressed a bit of panic on Wednesday when they demoted top prospect Jordan Walker. You might remember a big spring training storyline was how the Cardinals and Yankees (with Anthony Volpe) were beginning seasons of great expectations with their top prospects making the teams as starters. Walker was still familiarizing himself with right field after mainly being a third baseman in the minors, but he opened the season on a 12-game hitting streak, tied for the longest ever by a player 20 or younger.
But he hit .192 in his next eight games, and his groundball rate reached 60.4 percent (third-highest in the majors). He didn’t start Monday or Tuesday, in what was believed to be a respite to work on his swing. He was then sent to Triple-A Wednesday. The Cardinals did not want such an important player to their future not playing almost every day, and they were having difficulty working regular at-bats for five outfielders: Walker, Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbar and Tyler O’Neill. The sense was the uncertainty about roles and the irregularity of play was hurting the unit.
And that is possible. Still, this was not the unit hurting the Cardinals most.
The Cardinals have just five quality starts — three by Jordan Montgomery. Though Molina and Albert Pujols retired, 41-year-old Adam Wainwright came back for one more season. He incurred a groin injury during the spring, though, and is not scheduled to make his 2023 debut until May. Remember when Steve Cohen was infuriated that Steven Matz spurned the Mets in the 11th hour of free agency after the 2021 season? He has a 5.59 ERA now in a season-plus with the Cardinals. And then there’s Miles Mikolas, who received a two-year, $40 million extension late in spring training and had a 7.46 ERA before throwing 6 ⅓ shutout innings Thursday as St. Louis avoided being swept four games by San Francisco.
Still, on the subject of shutout pitching there is this: On the same day Walker was being demoted, Arizona’s Zac Gallen stretched his scoreless inning streak to 28. And if you have come this far, we are back to the NL Cy Young race. And perhaps you also have figured out why we took the long detour through the Cardinals’ current plight, notably with their rotation.
Because it would be really something if Miami’s Sandy Alcantara won the NL Cy Young in 2022 and Gallen followed in 2023. You might remember that on Dec. 14, 2017, the Cardinals traded that duo plus Daniel Castano and Magneuris Sierra to the Marlins for Marcell Ozuna. That was the offseason when Miami was doing a massive sell-off under Derek Jeter and new owner Bruce Sherman. In a sliding-doors moment, Giancarlo Stanton invoked his no-trade clause to block potential deals with the Cardinals and Giants and point himself to the Yankees.
St. Louis pivoted and wound up with Ozuna, who in two seasons with the Cardinals was fine, but not awesome. Meanwhile, a case can be made that the Cardinals might have won World Series — or still might win some — if they had Alcantara and Gallen (whom the Marlins subsequently dealt to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm). And if that is piling on the Cardinals, you might also notice that the current MLB RBI leader is Texas’ Adolis Garcia, who had 29 with seven homers and an .852 OPS, and third was Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena, who had 27 plus a .341 average and .981 OPS. The Rangers purchased Garcia’s contract from the Cardinals in December 2019; the Rays obtained Arozarena from St. Louis in January 2020 for, most notably, Matthew Liberatore, a starter who still might help the Cardinals.
For now, though, in our first early glimpse at the NL Cy Young race, Gallen is the front-runner with Atlanta’s Spencer Strider right behind. The Cubs’ Justin Steele and Marcus Stroman plus the Giants’ Alex Cobb are vying for top-five status.
Got my attention: On the subject of Ozuna … He left the Cardinals, signed a one-year deal with the Braves, led the NL in homers and RBIs during the shortened pandemic 2020 season and was rewarded with a four-year, $65 million contract. The deal has been a disaster for Atlanta.
While on the IL with two fractured fingers in May 2021, Ozuna was arrested on charges of aggravated assault by strangulation and battery against his wife. The strangulation charge was dropped for lack of evidence, and the rest was dismissed when he completed a diversion program. He was suspended 20 games by MLB for violating its domestic abuse edicts. Ozuna then was arrested last year and charged with driving under the influence.
On the field, Ozuna has hit .211 in the first two-plus years of his latest contract with a 76 OPS-plus while becoming such a defensive liability he’s made himself a near full-time DH — albeit one who is not much of a hitter. Through Wednesday, he had the majors’ worst Wins Above Replacement at -0.9 (Baseball Reference).
After the Diamondbacks earlier this month designated Madison Bumgarner for assignment with roughly $34.4 million left on his contract, I started to wonder who would be the next player with significant dollars left on a contract to be released. The three that came to mind were Aaron Hicks (who has roughly $28.5 million owed through 2025), Miami’s Avisail Garcia (who has roughly $39.15 million owed through 2025) and Ozuna (who has roughly $34.22 million left through 2024).
That might just be too much for the Marlins to eat. So that would leave it to Hicks vs. Ozuna.
From what I have been informed, the Braves do not see releasing Ozuna as a pressing matter, despite his poor performance. Ozuna and another Atlanta disappointment, Eddie Rosario, were forming a DH time share. But when Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Harris return from the IL, Ozuna might not even get those part-time at-bats. But as opposed to Aaron Boone, Atlanta’s Brian Snitker manages in a more traditional style of running out a regular lineup as much as possible.
So it is not as if Ozuna is a piece who would be needed frequently, nor is he blocking a better alternative. And, despite his off-field issues, the organization views him as a positive clubhouse piece. Even within a bad season last year, Ozuna did hit 23 homers. So Atlanta does not want to discard him just to do so on the very off chance he still might contribute.
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Whose career do you got? I was never much for the third-base scarcity in Cooperstown as part of an argument to vote for Scott Rolen.
Third base did have the fewest Hall of Famers of any non-DH position. But what was missing from the arguments was basically this: Who was missing?
The top eight third basemen (at least 50 percent of their games at that position) by Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference) were either Hall of Famers or Adrian Beltre, who almost certainly will get elected in the next class, his first year on the ballot.
Rolen was ninth and, in many ways, Beltre had the career Rolen would have had if Rolen had stayed fully healthy — elite on defense with 3,000 hits (3,166) and nearly 500 homers (477). Rolen was a borderline case, and was elected in his sixth year on the ballot.
Here are the next five third basemen in the WAR rankings who are not in the Hall: Graig Nettles, Buddy Bell, Ken Boyer, Sal Bando and Darrell Evans. Do you think any of them belong in the Hall of Fame? The next four are the currently active Evan Longoria, Robin Ventura, Stan Hack and Ron Cey. Have I hit someone yet who you are ready to endorse strongly?
It is worth remembering that Hall of Famers such as Harmon Killebrew, Tony Perez and Jim Thome came up as third basemen, but played a majority of their games elsewhere, notably across the diamond at first. The same is going to be true when Miguel Cabrera, who is set to retire after this season, gets elected six years from now.
Due to the quick-twitch athleticism needed defensively, it is not an easy position to stay at for an entire career, especially because it usually calls for some bulk to provide power.
But here are the next two guys on that WAR list: Arenado and Manny Machado.
Both are far from done playing, and both already feel as if they are on Hall of Fame trajectories. And it is possible we may be in an era that eventually loads Cooperstown up with players from the hot corner. Jose Ramirez already has five top-six MVP finishes. Rafael Devers might fall into the Killebrew/Perez mode and have to move across the diamond. Is Austin Riley just a latter-day Troy Glaus — a star, but not a Hall of Famer? Alex Bregman’s career looks a lot like Boyer’s at a similar point (age-29 season).
Arenado and Machado are the current third basemen who fit the Hall profile. And their cases are far from complete. Arenado is signed with the Cardinals through 2027, and Machado recently re-upped with the Padres for 10 more seasons through 2033. Still, at this moment, whose career do you got?
Arenado is 15 months older, but Machado began his MLB career a year earlier (in 2012). But they are close in regular-season games played: Arenado has 1,408 and Machado 1,470 (all stats are through Wednesday).
Arenado has a slash line of .288/.345/.532 with an OPS-plus of 123, 301 homers and 52.3 WAR. Machado’s slash line is .280/.340/.489 with an OPS-plus of 125, 284 homers and 51.4 WAR.
Machado is a gifted defender who played shortstop earlier in his career. But Arenado is in the conversation for best defensive third baseman ever. He has won the Gold Glove in all 10 of his seasons and six Platinum Gloves as the best defender in the National League.
Neither has been the Most Valuable Player. Machado has five top-nine MVP finishes, including a runner-up last year. Arenado has six top-eight finishes, including a third-place finish last year just behind Machado in the NL.
Machado has 10 postseason homers, but just a .221 average with 45 strikeouts in 178 plate appearances. Arenado, in just nine playoff games, is 5-for-33 (.152) with one homer.
Neither has begun this season well. Arenado was at .260 with just two homers and a .662 OPS. Machado was at .214 with one homer and a .536 OPS.
They probably will both begin mashing soon — and for years to come. But at this moment: Whose career do you got?
Roster stuff maybe only I notice: … We got a heartwarming baseball story in the last week when the Pirates promoted 33-year-old Drew Maggi and he got into his first MLB game after 12-plus years and 1,155 games in the minors for the Pirates, Angels, Dodgers, Cleveland, Twins, Phillies and Pirates again.
He was drafted by Pittsburgh in the 15th round of the 2010 draft. To get a sense of how long ago that was, the Pirates had the third pick in the draft that year and took Jameson Taillon just behind Bryce Harper and Machado.
Last licks: Coming into this season, Philadelphia reliever Jose Alvarado deservedly had the reputation of having great stuff and erratic control. He had walked 13.6 percent of batters — the highest among active players (minimum 250 appearances) and 19th all-time.
So who had pitched the most innings in 2023 (through Wednesday) without walking a batter? Yep, Alvarado at 11 ⅓ innings. He also had 22 strikeouts and just six hits allowed.
