The New York Post has a ridiculous article claiming that Liz Cheney’s support among Republicans has doubled since Donald Trump’s indictment.
It’s a patently absurd claim. It is based upon one poll that overlaps with another that says the opposite.
My guess is that the article is more clickbait than pro-Cheney propaganda. It fits an interesting narrative, although one that is contradicted by all the other evidence. Were it true that Cheney’s numbers were rising dramatically that would suggest that Republicans are turning on Trump, which indeed would be big news.
But at least so far the evidence doesn’t back it up, and I suspect that it never will. As depressed as many Republicans are that Trump is the front-runner for the nomination, even his critics are rallying around the flag due to the absurd and politically-motivated charges being hurled at Trump.
The claim is based upon a single Trafalgar poll that indeed does show Cheney’s star is rising with Republicans should she run for president.
Donald Trump isn’t the only person benefiting in the polls from his indictment.
Support for former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) has doubled among Republican voters in the last few weeks, inching her closer to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose numbers are falling.
According to a series of surveys by the Trafalgar Group taken before Trump announced on March 18 that he would be indicted in Manhattan and after the indictment was formally announced last Thursday, Cheney has climbed to 10.3% from 5.3%.
In that same time, DeSantis has seen his numbers plummet from 32.2% to 22.5%.
Read Related Also: ‘It hasn’t worked out’: Agbonlahor says ’top, top player’ Liverpool sold is now struggling
Those DeSantis numbers are backed up by other polls, but the Cheney numbers are not.
The RealClearPolitics poll tracker shows that Trump is benefiting and DeSantis is harmed by the prospect of and now reality of Trump’s indictment. But Cheney? Seems unlikely. As you can see in the chart a Reuters poll taken during the same time period has Cheney right at her RCP poll average of 3.4%, suggesting that this is a pretty accurate reflection of the state of play.
Trump’s rise is not unexpected. In fact, it was widely predicted, and many political pundits either secretly or openly believe that the indictment and political persecution of Trump is intended to help him get the nomination while fatally wounding him in the general election.
Republicans are expressing their disgust with the indictment, while the polls of the general populace indicate that they are done with Trump. 60% of Americans approve of Trump’s indictment despite the fact that the actual crime, even after arraignment, is not yet known by anybody.
Literally, nobody knows exactly how Bragg deduced that a crime was committed here. The charges of faking business records can only be justified by reference to a separate crime that is to be named later. The current charges–34, based upon one actual transaction–are misdemeanors and outside the statute of limitations. They are by themselves rechargeable. Nobody even disputes that. A different, related crime is required in order to prosecute, and nobody knows what it is and Bragg refuses to say.
But that 60% is firm, and is entirely due to people hating Trump. They simply don’t care if he is guilty of a crime.
Ironically that is what is raising Trump’s numbers among Republicans. The prosecution is so patently unfair that one simply has to support him in some way, and the polls reflect that.
Cheney though? Even assuming any rise in support for her, which seems very unlikely, is hated by 90% of Republicans. Likelier still the 97% number reflected in the other current poll and the RCP average is much closer to the truth. Why write a story concentrating on Trafalgar when the Reuters poll doesn’t reflect any movement at all?
Why? It makes for interesting copy. That’s why.
