Why not just say “no deals” with Hamas at all? That seems to be Hamas’ position now that France, Canada, and the UK have decided to recognize a Palestinian state while Hamas continues to hold hostages. In fact, Hamas has stopped talking at all, save with one entity:
There is growing pessimism in Israel over the possibility that Hamas will show flexibility and return to the negotiating table, an Israeli source told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
The feeling within the government is that the talks are nearing collapse, an Israeli official said. “It now seems that an expanded military operation in Gaza is inevitable,” the official said.
“Hamas has cut off contact,” an Israeli source said. “There are no real negotiations with them.”
Hamas has also partially severed ties with Qatar and Egypt, another official familiar with the talks told the Post.“At the moment, they are primarily engaged in talks with Turkey,” the source said.
One can grasp why Hamas wants to cut off Israel and the US, and maybe even Egypt, which suppresses Hamas’ parent org, the Muslim Brotherhood. Why cut off Qatar, which has not just acted as an interlocutor but has sheltered Hamas leadership for more than a decade in Doha? The Qataris have not just made Hamas leaders into billionaires, they are essentially the only thing standing between them and the Mossad, which would love to make them pay for October 7.
Hamas cut off Qatar for demanding their exit from Gaza this week. The entire Arab world has had enough of Hamas, especially as a proxy for the Iranian mullahcracy. Mostly at this moment, the Arabs want them out because they are the biggest remaining obstacle to a settlement for the Palestinians, an issue about which they tired long ago:
The world’s Arab countries for the first time have joined unanimously in the call for Hamas to lay down its weapons, release all hostages and end its rule of the Gaza Strip, conditions that they said could help the establishment of a Palestinian state.
The surprise declaration, endorsed on Tuesday by the 22 member nations of the Arab League, also condemned Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, which set off the devastating war in Gaza. The statement came at a United Nations conference in New York on a two-state solution to end the decades-long conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.
“In the context of ending the war in Gaza, Hamas must end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority, with international engagement and support, in line with the objectives of a sovereign and independent Palestinian state,” said the declaration. It was also signed by all 27 European Union states and 17 other countries.
The Turks and the Iranians are the only countries still willing to help out Hamas. The Iranians have no way to influence events now, not after Israel and the US depantsed the IRGC in the 12 Day War, and the Turks would dearly love to interfere with Israel’s security. They have zero value as interlocutors as well, which means that Hamas simply refuses to make any deal at all that doesn’t result in renewing their grip on power.
That makes the two-state solution a moot issue at the moment. France, the UK, and Canada can “recognize” it all they want, but Israel will not stop the war without the return of the hostages, both alive and dead. The chutzpah of those nations demanding otherwise may be breathtaking, but it’s not impressive, nor will it impact the trajectory in Gaza — except to make Israel more determined to erase Hamas before they can claim statehood.
And since phased agreements would only encourage that development, the Israelis declared today that they will no longer negotiate within that framework. It’s now all or nothing, thanks largely to the incentives set by feckless Western leadership as well as Hamas’ intransigence. And the US is endorsing this new policy:
As negotiations with Hamas stall, Israel and the United States are now aligned on aiming for a comprehensive framework in place of a partial ceasefire and hostage-release deal, a senior Israeli official told reporters during a Thursday briefing.
“There will be no more partial deals,” the official was quoted as saying, explaining that Israel and the US now concur on the need to “shift from a framework for the release of some of the hostages to a framework for the release of all of the hostages, the disarmament of Hamas and the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip.”
“At the same time,” the source was quoted as saying, “Israel and the US will work to increase the humanitarian aid, while continuing the fighting in Gaza.”
This has implications for Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy, as the Times of Israel points out:
If actualized, the new stance would mark a major shift for Israel, which came up with the phased hostage deal framework during the first year of the war, as it enabled Israel to secure the release of some of its hostages, while maintaining the ability to resume the war — something Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needed to maintain his coalition, as far-right partners threatened to collapse the government if Israel agreed to a permanent ceasefire.
This is true, but incomplete. Phased negotiations suited Hamas far more than Israel. It allowed Hamas to seek massively unbalanced swaps between hostages and Palestinian prisoners, plus various tactical concessions from Israel. Phased negotiations also allowed for the Hamas Hokey Pokey, wherein Hamas would offer concessions, Israel would agree, and Hamas would subsequently change its position and get Western negotiators to press Israel for more concessions.
Politically speaking, Netanyahu probably needs a deal now more than ever. However, he’s not going to concede on Hamas’ status, certainly not after the entire Arab world just told them to lay down their weapons and exit Gaza. The deal Netanyahu needs is one that ends the war on those terms. There is no point in creating phased deals short of that where Hamas attempts to evade that outcome and remain in control of Gaza. And, ironically, the moral retreat by our allies on this war has made that clearer than ever to the Israelis.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
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