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So says Punchbowl News’s Samantha Handler, who hears it from John Thune, who hears it from the holdouts in the GOP caucus. The reconciliation bill only needs 51 votes to pass, and Thune has 53 in his caucus, but wrangling them turned into a nightmare that will have consequences when the bill returns to the House.
At this point, though, the focus is still on the Senate, where it looked grim for Donald Trump’s first major legislative project in this term. Thune apparently sees light at the end of the tunnel:
THUNE says he believes they have a deal but adds that we’ll see what happens
— Samantha Handler (@sn_handler) July 1, 2025
At one point in the last couple of days, it looked as though Thune only had 43 firm votes for passage. So who’s flipping among the other ten Senate Republicans? According to Politico, one in particular seems surprising:
After hours of tense negotiations, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska suggested she has moved closer to yes on the GOP megabill.
Asked if her demands were in the hands of the parliamentarian, she told reporters, “It’s in the hands of the people that operate the copy machine.”
The parliamentarian has meddled plenty with the GOP efforts, so much so that some of the sweeteners for the House Freedom Caucus had to be abandoned. Republicans did get a win last night from Elizabeth MacDonough, however:
Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough advised Monday that language that would block Planned Parenthood from Medicaid funding eligibility would be permissible for inclusion in the sweeping budget reconciliation bill, a major blow for the nation’s largest provider of reproductive services.
One good sign that a deal for passage has finally been reached: Thune is calling members back to the floor for a vote in the next few minutes. That suggests that the negotiations have concluded favorably for GOP leadership:
In a sign the Republican-led Senate could be making progress toward ending its marathon session on President Donald Trump’s priority bill, senators have been asked to come to the floor and be in their seats in 15 minutes. The notice went out from the office of Senate GOP Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyoming) at 10:12 a.m. Eastern.
Even if the Senate passes the package, what happens when it gets to the House? Republican leadership insists that they have been working closely to ensure a smooth ride in the lower chamber:
GOP Conf Chair McClain on Fox: We are in lockstep. And Leader Johnson and Leader Thune, along with the rest of the leadership teams and the House and and the Senate, have really been working hand-in-glove to talk to each other about what is palatable, what isn’t palatable, what…
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) July 1, 2025
… what is palatable, what isn’t palatable, what our redlines, it really has been a coordinated, interactive process, which is very different than I’ve seen before. And people are really trying to work together, which I think is rather refreshing for a change.
Well, yes, that would be a change.
Stay tuned for updates as the situation develops …
Update: On to the House … barely:
🚨SENATE PASSES RECONCILIATION
51-50, VANCE BREAKS THE TIE
GOP NO VOTES:
COLLINS
TILLIS
PAUL— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) July 1, 2025
Now we’ll see just how much wrangling that Mike Johnson needs to do … and Donald Trump, of course. In the meantime, it’s still a win for Trump and the GOP leadership, but only for now.
