All four of Australia’s big banks are now expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates next month, with ANZ’s economists even forecasting three cash rate cuts in a row this year.
All the major banks now expect the RBA to cut interest rates three more times this year.
With Trump’s tariffs sparking fears of an economic slowdown in the US, central banks like Australia’s Reserve Bank might look to cut interest rates in an attempt to prepare for any effects that would be felt here.
ANZ had previously only expected there to be one cash rate cut this year in August.
Now, its economists expect the RBA could cut rates at its meetings in May, July, and August.
One rate cut of 0.25 per cent, if it was passed on by the banks, could drop the average mortgage by $91 per month.
Analysis by Canstar says a scenario where banks cut rates three times this year could save borrowers about $269 per month.
“Today’s change in ANZ’s forecast might seem like music to a borrower’s ears, however, we need to be careful of what we wish for, Canstar.com.au’s Data Insights Director Sally Tindall said.
“Three cuts in quick succession, as ANZ is now forecasting, would mean the Australian economy was back under extreme pressure and no one wants that.”
Tindall said the RBA would resist making quick decisions, when the full impact of the unfolding tariff war would be unlikely to be clear for a while.
“There’s also no guarantee banks would pass on each of these cuts in full, particularly if they come racing in, one after the other,” she said.
“Don’t go banking on successive rate cuts, because they might not happen.
“If you’ve got a mortgage, keep calm and focus on getting your finances in the best shape possible.
“It’s still way too early to know what even the short-term future of the cash rate will be.”
