The first time I wrote about things going badly for the Bay Area Rapid Transit system was back in 2018 when a local station ran a story about drug addicts shooting up in the system’s walkways. But that was nothing compared to the disaster that came later. During the pandemic, people in San Francisco started working at home and even once the pandemic ended, people didn’t come back.
Two years ago it became clear that BART was in big trouble.
As the San Francisco Chronicle reported today, BART was once the pride of US rail system because it generated more money from fares than any similar system in the US. BART still didn’t break even but in 2019 72% of its funding came from fares which is a lot better than similar systems in New York or Boston for which ridership covers only about half of the cost to operate the trains.
BART ridership was in decline even before the pandemic but since then it has truly dropped off a cliff…
The immediate financial crisis was forestalled by some pandemic funding but that is going to run out in less than two years. By that point, the system is either going to need hundreds of millions per year in state funding or a major cutback in service. The cutbacks required would be so severe that they would likely put the remaining ridership into a tailspin.
Here’s a chart showing the drop in ridership that threatened to kill the system.
BART got a one-time influx from the state but the state’s own budget problems ensured that wouldn’t happen again. Lawmakers came up with a plan for a new regional transit tax but as of last summer that plan was pulled, meaning there was no plan to keep the trains running.
Monday of this week, the same legislators tried to introduce that plan again. And once again they warned that this was a potential disaster if the region didn’t come up with some new source of funds.
The vision that Wiener, a San Francisco Democrat, and Arreguin, a Democrat from Berkeley, present is stark: Without hundreds of millions of dollars in new funding, BART would have to shut down stations and limit train service to once an hour. Muni could face a 50% reduction in frequency on many lines.
Gaping holes in transit service would have a devastating impact on freeway traffic, with commute times increasing by 10 hours a week on key routes between the East Bay and San Francisco.
“If we do nothing, we will see catastrophic service cuts,” Wiener said. “When you cut service, more and more people stop riding. That means even more of a reduction in fare revenue, which leads to more service cuts, which leads more people to stop riding. Rinse and repeat.”
So far as I know, Sen. Wiener did not use the phrase “doom loop” but he might as well have. That’s certainly what he’s referring to when he says “rinse and repeat.”
The best case scenario here seems to be that this new plan would be on the ballot in November of 2026. That’s obviously still a long time away and there’s no guarantee it will pass. Meanwhile, just today, the SF Standard ran a story about service problems in the BART system. While ridership still hasn’t recovered compared to 2019, cuts in service that have already been made are making the ride unpleasant for a lot of people, especially on Tuesdays.
The second day of the work week is by far the busiest, with an average of 179,638 travelers packed into trains, according to The Standard’s analysis of BART ridership data for the last six months. Wednesday is the second busiest day, with an average of 175,598. Monday has the fewest weekday trips: 141,472…
On a recent Tuesday, The Standard witnessed passengers jostling for slivers of space during the morning rush hour. Bodies were crammed uncomfortably close together. Cyclists got the stink eye from other riders for taking up extra space…
While the packed platforms and trains on certain days might make it feel like the Before Times, BART hasn’t fully recovered; ridership totals are paltry compared with before the pandemic. In 2019, average ridership for all weekdays was 400,000, according to BART data. Due to the drop in ridership, the transit system reduced the number of train cars in 2023. That means it can be a tight fit for the unlucky passengers who have no choice but to commute to the office.
For its part, BART says the fluctuations in ridership aren’t enough to justify more trains or more cars per train.
The point is that the worst case Sen. Wiener envisions is already happening. Service has already been cut (in 2023) and people are already unhappy with it. So even though ridership hasn’t recovered, there is essentially a cap in place on how many more riders will use the system because many trains are already overcrowded and unpleasant. Any further cuts would almost certainly result in people finding other options for transportation. And that’s where the downward spiral really begins leading to even more cuts and potentially reducing trains even further and closing entire stations.
November of 2026 is a long time to wait to find out if there is a solution for this problem. It’s very possible BART is going to be in real trouble before this even comes up for a vote.
